How Air-Defence Failures Brought Down Latvia’s Government
In this week’s edition, you’ll read about:
How Air-Defence Failures Brought Down Latvia’s Government
Czech Helicopter Engines Keep Ending Up in Russia Despite Sanctions
The US Punishes Its Most Loyal Partner, Poland
How Air-Defence Failures Brought Down Latvia’s Government
As runners scrambled to push for their best times at the Riga Marathon, they passed a man holding a seemingly supportive message: “You’re Running Better Than The Government.”
The joke wouldn’t normally make international news, were it not for the fact that the man holding the sign was Andris Šuvajevs, the head of the Latvian Progressive Party, whose government was in the middle of a collapse.
The upheaval is the result of long-simmering conflicts within the governing coalition, topped off by recent drone crashes in the country.
Air alerts have become a fairly regular occurrence in all three Baltic states. As Ukrainian drones fly to deliver attacks in the richest regions of Russia, namely St Petersburg and Moscow, they sometimes fall victim to Russian electronic warfare and stray from their route.
This has resulted in numerous drone incidents across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
But while Latvian neighbours such as Estonia have largely managed to shoot down incoming drones, Latvian armed forces have stuck largely to observing.
This has become an increasingly frustrating experience for many Latvians, especially after seeing the rampant increase in defence expenses in the country, which today reach nearly five percent of its GDP. Never before has more money been invested in defence in the whole of Latvia’s independent history.
Moreover, the Latvian ministry of defence has also boasted for several years about investing in Latvian drone capabilities and making the country something of a drone powerhouse. But the expenses have not seemingly translated into better protection for the people whose taxes pay for them.
“I’ve received those alert messages as well while being in eastern Latvia. People are truly concerned that the messages come and go, and the interception success rate is zero to this date,” says Maris Andžans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga. “It’s been shown that the ’emperor has no clothes’,” he adds.
“Latvia obviously has some good producers of land, sea and air drones, but that does not translate into anti-drone capabilities,” Andžans explains.
As Andžans explains, one thing that Latvians cannot comprehend is why the country’s defence seems to be so underwhelming, when the full-scale Russian war against Ukraine started more than four years ago, and the first Russian drone landed in Latvia already in autumn 2024. “No nation is perfect. But the government had time to prepare.”
All this tension erupted into a full-on political crisis in the country after two Ukrainian drones crashed into an abandoned oil depot in Latvia two weeks ago. The air defence did not intercept them, and the air alerts were sent to residents only after the crash had already happened.
The incident first forced the defence minister, Andris Spruds, to resign on 10 May.
To add insult to injury, the minister of agriculture, Armands Krauze, was temporarily detained on Thursday by the Corruption Prevention and Combating Bureau, and has become the first sitting minister in Latvian history to be criminally prosecuted while in office.
Dismissing Krauze, prime minister Evika Silina, of the New Unity party, announced her own resignation on the same day, ahead of a vote of no confidence in parliament, bringing down the government.
On Saturday, president Edgars Rinkevičs appointed opposition leader Andris Kulbergs of the United List party to form a new government.
Even though the drone crashes were the catalyst which set off the fall of the Latvian government, the reasons behind the dissolution run much deeper.
“It was an unhappy marriage among ideologically diverse parties,” says Andžans. “So it was only a matter of time for this coalition to collapse.”
According to the expert, the government operated with unexceptional efficiency — but it was nothing to write home about. Especially since the promise of the coalition was to break the status quo, restart Latvia’s competitiveness, and stop it from falling behind its neighbours, especially Estonia. This promise, however, was not fulfilled.
The new government, if formed, will most likely be more rightwing than the outgoing one, which was led by the Progressive Party. Foreign policy, however, is unlikely to change, as there is a consensus on the pro-Nato, anti-Russia stance across the political spectrum in Latvia.
Were the drone incidents to continue, however, Andžans worries they could have a negative influence over the support Latvians show for Ukraine.
“Russia is currently aggressively trying to push the Baltic states to stop Ukraine from attacking the St Petersburg region,” he explains.
Czech Helicopter Engines Keep Ending Up in Russia Despite Sanctions
An investigation by Deník N revealed that four years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia remains dependent on imports of machinery and materials to sustain its military production.
What’s worse, though, an analysis of customs database records showed that between the start of 2024 and April 2025 alone, Russian firms purchased goods labelled as PBS products worth more than €8.5mn. In total, this covers dozens of different items.
We have recorded an interview with one of the journalists behind the investigation. Watch it here.
Russians bought the goods from two Chinese and several Indian firms.
Let’s be clear: There is no smoking gun that would allow us to say PBS is selling engines to Russia on purpose. We cannot even confirm whether the PBS engines sold to Russia are new or older units.
What we do know, however, is that this is not the first time information like this has surfaced. Back in 2023, an investigation by Trap Aggressor revealed that PBS engines were being supplied to Russia through third countries.
The US Punishes Its Most Loyal Partner, Poland
The US is taking revenge on Europe for not taking part in the American special military operation in the Strait of Hormuz by pulling its troops out of the old continent. After President Donald Trump’s administration said it would pull thousands of soldiers out of Germany, the Pentagon said it is halting the deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland.
The US is also regrouping its forces to potentially face escalation in the Pacific around Taiwan.
Effectively, though, the US is punishing what is possibly its most exemplary ally in Europe. As Rzeczpospolita opinion writer Michał Szułdrzyński notes, Warsaw spends billions on military purchases in the US and allocates 5% of its GDP to defence. Yet the reduction of US troops begins in Poland. This is bad news for the region and good news for the Kremlin.
Sidenotes
Despite the reshuffling in Poland, American military personnel will remain in Estonia, though “surprises” cannot be ruled out, Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur said. (ERR)
A drone that entered Estonian airspace was shot down over Lake Võrtsjärv on Tuesday. (ERR)
Right-wing candidate for PM of Slovenia, Janez Janša, submitted his candidacy for the presidency to the National Assembly. He is likely to become PM-designate on Friday. (RTV SLO)