Ukraine's Answer to the Patriot Problem: Build Something Cheaper, and Build It Fast
In this week’s edition, you’ll read about:
Ukraine Will Build Its Own Patriot Alternative. It Won’t Be Perfect, But It Can Work, Experts Say
Russia Ramps Up Sabotage Activity Across Latvia, Europe
Orban Told Putin in a Leaked Phone Call: ‘I Am at Your Service’
Ukraine Will Build Its Own Patriot Alternative. It Won't Be Perfect, But It Can Work, Experts Say
The US-Israeli war against Iran has exposed a vulnerability in Europe that had previously received little attention: air defence systems.
Countries on NATO’s eastern flank depend on the American Patriot system for defence against enemy ballistic missiles. But as the US and its allies in the Middle East expended a historic number of Patriot missiles repelling Iranian attacks, the situation sparked concerns about whether ordered supplies for European allies would be fulfilled on time. Washington has also shifted some of its Patriot batteries to the Middle East from Europe.
With the US president threatening to leave NATO, anxieties about the future of European air defence and missile supplies are growing. Europe’s only anti-ballistic system, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T, is produced in relatively small numbers. Ukraine, for which Patriot missiles provide a lifeline against Russian ballistic missiles such as the powerful Iskander, is looking for a way to outmaneuver a tough spot—just as it has done so many times throughout the war.
“Domestic production of air defence capabilities, along with long-range strike systems, is something Ukraine urgently needs—and has needed for a long time. Its dependence on transfers from partner countries, which can be delayed or insufficient, has become untenable, as Russia continues to exploit these vulnerabilities,” says Olena Kryzhanivska, a defence analyst and author of the Ukraine’s Arms Monitor newsletter.
Alternatives to Patriot exist—among them the Israeli Barak system purchased by Slovakia, David’s Sling acquired by Finland, and the South Korean Cheongung-II used by the United Arab Emirates last month. These systems, however, are roughly as expensive to operate as Patriot.
Ukraine’s latest bid is to develop a more affordable alternative. The company behind the idea is Fire Point, which is partnering with as-yet-unspecified European partners. Fire Point makes the FP-1, likely the most widely used deep-strike drone in Ukraine’s arsenal, as well as a cruise missile nicknamed Flamingo.
Fire Point co-founder and chief designer Denys Shtilierman told Reuters this week that the company aims to slash the cost of intercepting a ballistic missile to below $1 million. To bring down a ballistic projectile, the Patriot system, manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, often requires two or three interceptor missiles, each costing several million dollars.
“If we can decrease it to less than $1 million, it will be a game changer in air defence solutions,” he said. “We plan to intercept the first ballistic missile at the end of 2027.”
Shtilierman declined to name the European companies involved in the discussions but said Fire Point is “deeply interested” in collaboration on radar, missile target-seeking and communications systems.
As the Patriot system is extraordinarily complex, the proposed deadline by Fire Point to develop an alternative and begin production raises questions. But while “The 2027 deadline sounds optimistic, it does not mean that these systems will have reached full maturity by then. Rather, they are expected to be operational and already in use,” says Olena Kryzhanivska.
According to the Czech military analyst Lukáš Visingr, the system probably won’t be as capable as Patriot, as it’s practically impossible to achieve Patriot-level quality at a dramatically lower price point. “But it should be possible to develop something with perhaps 70 to 80 percent of Patriot’s effectiveness, with missiles costing about a third of the price,” says the expert.
For military capabilities to be effectively used in wartime, Kryzhanivska argues, they do not need to be perfect. They can be deployed and then further refined based on battlefield feedback—a key difference, she says, between the traditional Western approach and Ukraine’s way of doing things.
While Western companies tend to continue refining their products before deployment, Ukraine fields its innovations early and upgrades them iteratively in response to real-world use.
She points to another Fire Point product as an example: the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile. While less precise than more advanced technological counterparts and still a work in progress, it remains capable of delivering destructive strikes against critical enemy infrastructure and has demonstrated an increasing ability to penetrate Russian air defence and electronic warfare systems.
The Flamingo has also been used to hit Russian military facilities and arms factories, including a ballistic missile plant nearly 1,400 kilometers inside Russian territory.
Fire Point is now in the final stages of developing two supersonic ballistic missiles, Shtilierman told Reuters.
The smaller FP-7, expected to be comparable to Lockheed Martin’s ATACMS short-range ballistic system with a range of around 300 kilometers, is set for its first military deployment in the near future. It is also intended for use in the new anti-missile defence system the company is currently developing.
The larger FP-9, capable of carrying an 800-kilogram warhead up to 850 kilometers, is due to be tested soon. If it performs as designed, it would place Moscow within range of Ukraine’s ballistic arsenal.
Russia Ramps Up Sabotage Activity Across Latvia, Europe
Russia intensified its sabotage activities in Europe, including in the CEE, in 2025, displaying disregard for its recruits, among them minors, according to a report from Latvia’s Military Intelligence and Security Service.
As the agency reports, a coordinated campaign of sabotage operations continues across Europe and Latvia. The goal is to intimidate the public and influence political decision-making regarding support for Ukraine.
Russian services are using increasingly dangerous methods, including arson, physical attacks, and bombings using military-grade explosives, often showing a disregard for civilian casualties. One example is the act of sabotage against railway infrastructure in Poland in November 2025, notable for its use of industrially produced military-grade explosives.
Russian intelligence services — specifically the GRU — are also increasingly using online platforms like Telegram to recruit “disposable” individuals, often from marginalized groups or youth, to carry out these acts for easy money.
A particularly dangerous tactic of sabotage involves recruiting minors to deliver packages containing explosive devices. The recruiter then detonates these devices remotely, often while the courier is still nearby, showing total disregard for the courier’s life. Russian intelligence services consider this group highly vulnerable due to being easily influenced and lacking the maturity to fully evaluate the risks and legal consequences of their actions.
Orban Offers to Be the Mouse to Putin’s Lion
Ahead of Sunday’s parliamentary elections, which could finally end the 16-year rule of Viktor Orban’s autocratic and kleptocratic regime, leaked recordings capturing its relationship with Russia reveal a shocking, if not surprising, servile posture toward Vladimir Putin’s government.
According to Bloomberg, during a phone call in October, Orban told the Russian president he was willing to go to great lengths to assist him, including helping to settle the war in Ukraine by hosting a summit in Budapest.
“Yesterday our friendship rose to such a high level that I can help in any way,” Orban said, according to a Hungarian government transcript of the call reviewed by Bloomberg. “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.”
To underline the point, Orban recalled a children’s story he said was popular in Hungary — an Aesop fable involving a mouse freeing a lion caught in a net, after the lion had earlier spared the rodent’s life. The remark drew a laugh from Putin, according to the transcript.
The brief call provides further evidence that helping Russia is a policy that comes from the very top of the Hungarian government.
Sidenotes
Despite uncertainty, Ukraine has received a new batch of interceptor missiles for its Patriot air-defence systems. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the delivery took place recently. (Militarnyi)
The White House is considering a plan to punish some NATO members that President Trump views as unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials. Countries that could, in turn, benefit from this include Poland, Romania, Lithuania, and Greece. The Eastern European countries rank among the alliance’s highest defence spenders and were among the first to signal support for an international coalition to monitor the Strait of Hormuz. After the war broke out, Romania quickly approved U.S. requests to use its bases for the Air Force. (WSJ)
The U.S. Department of Defence will purchase 10 Giraffe 1X radars designed for very short-range air defence for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, in a deal worth over $70 million. (Defense24)